ASEAN's leading financial group maintains forecast of 6.5% in GDP growth for Vietnam

In a production line of electronic devices (Photo: LDO)

Vietnam is considered to have successfully prevented a recession in 2020 with positive economic growth and full-year exports increasing by 6.9%. Exports increased 29.6% in the first four months of 2021, with machinery, computers and electronics increasing sharply.

Maybank maintained its forecast for full-year 2021 gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 6.5% for Vietnam, while it cut its outlook for the remaining three countries at 4.2% instead of 5.9% for Cambodia; at 4.8% instead of 6% for Laos; and a reduction of 8% instead of 3% for Myanmar.

While Cambodia and Laos are facing new and more serious waves of COVID-19 infections, Myanmar's situation is complicated by an unstable political situation that could push the country into a deep recession. As a result, Myanmar is forecast to be a lagging country as Vietnam, followed by Cambodia and Laos, are gradually benefiting in terms of exports and production this year, as global demand increases.

The ASEAN leading financial group said that the speed of economic recovery in all four CLMV countries mainly depends on vaccine deployment, but vaccine procurement remains a challenge. To date, governments have ensured sufficient doses to vaccinate between 30% and 60% of the population respectively because of limited financial resources, supply constraints and logistical challenges.

According to Maybank, Cambodia leads in vaccination progress. About 12.6% of the Cambodian population has received at least one dose of the vaccine. While Laos and Myanmar have begun vaccination campaigns, with 6.5% and 3.1% respectively, having received at least one dose./.


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